Among the methods used in achieving strategic balances, there are interventions in the internal affairs of the countries and internal turmoil, wars of the states, foreign military interventions, and the use of terrorist organizations in recent times. In recent years, terrorist activities have changed tactically and qualitatively, and their first applications have been staged in this region.
These events from the Middle East geography directly concern Turkey in the context of social, economic and security issues. The historical, religious and ethnic identity bond with the people of the region, the underground resources of the region and the presence of units that threaten domestic security in this unstable region force Turkey to keep its interest in this region.
In this study, the possible effects of the policies implemented by post-modern terrorist organizations on the security and future of Turkey in the Mosul-Kirkuk and Aleppo regions, which are located within the borders of the National Pact, which has an important place among the documents of the Turkish War of Independence, will be examined.
In this direction, the social and economic structure of the region will be examined, the final aims of the imperialist states within the borders of the National Pact and the methods and tactics they applied will be discussed and explanations will be made.
Note: This article was published in the January - February 2017 / 93rd issue of “New Turkey” Magazine. http://www.yeniturkiye.com/display.asp?c=0931
- WHAT IS MISAK-I MILLI (NATIONAL PACT) AND WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
The events in the Middle East are a chain of events called the Arab Spring, which started in Tunisia, emerged in order in Muslim countries, and was directed by imperialist countries, and is said to have the aim of democratization. It spread to Syria, one of the neighboring countries of Turkey, and the events that started in January 2011 have become threatening Turkey's southern border. In the early 2000s, the insecure Syrian border of 911 km was added to the Iraqi border, which became insecure after the events in Iraq and the intervention of the United States. Armed groups with different names and structuring, which entered the struggle for dominance in the region with the disappearance of the nation-state sovereignty on the southern border, created chaos and turmoil in the region with the guidance and support of the imperialist countries. These events on the southern border have left Turkey faced with to restructure its security policies, the PKK terrorist organization, which it has been fighting for nearly 30 years in the country, in addition to its restructuring in the north of Syria, in addition to its structuring in northern Iraq. Again, apart from this organization, it had to fight with radical Islamist terrorist organizations that caused violence in the region and entered the struggle for sovereignty in order to maintain the security of the country.
This geography, where all these events took place and which threatens the security of the country, has been under the domination of Turkey in the past as a historical heritage place and still has a direct relationship with the social structure of the region. Therefore, it is quite normal and necessary for Turkey to be related to the political incidents in this region.
In response to the events that took place after the Armistice of Mudros, signed on October 30, 1918, the Ottoman Parliamentary Assembly, convened in Istanbul, made a six-point declaration on the territorial integrity of the country and the principles of the foreign policy to be implemented in the future. This document, called the “Ahd-ı Milli Declaration”, was unanimously accepted by 121 deputies attending the meeting on January 28, 1920 and announced to the public on February 17. It was also named as Ahd-ı Milli, Peyman-ı Milli, Milli Ant, National Ant and National Pact, and was adopted as the Misak-ı Milli in the Republican period (Sakin, 2002: 312-315). Behind the modern understanding of nationalism, next to the Magna Charta of the British and the Declaration of Human Rights of the French, the third important document is the Turkish National Pact. Therefore, the National Pact can be considered as the milestone of the national struggle, the republic and the legislature (Ezherli, 1992: 22, 23; Sakin, 2002: 314).
The borders of the National Pact, which was shaped by Mustafa Kemal at the Erzurum Congress, were also accepted exactly at the Sivas Congress. According to these decisions; on October 30, 1918, when the Armistice of Mudros was signed, it was demanded that the idea of dividing the countries within the borders of the Ottoman Empire, the majority of which were Islamic and cultural and economic superiority belonged to Muslims, and where our brothers, co-religionists and compatriots lived, which could not be separated from each other, were asked to be abandoned (Bostancı, 2015: 197).
It was stated in the first article of the National Pact accepted in the Chamber of Deputies; “The future of the parts of the Ottoman Empire, especially those inhabited by the Arab majority and occupied by the enemy armies upon the acceptance of the armistice (Armistice of Mudros) dated October 30, 1918, should be determined in accordance with the votes of its people to declare freely. Being connected to each other in terms of religion, race and national unity within and outside the aforementioned armistice line, fostering mutual respect and self-sacrifice, respecting race and social relations and the conditions of their environment; All of the sections in which the Ottoman-Islamic majority settled are a whole that cannot be separated from each other, be it by an action or a verdict.” (Tuncay, 1976: 12; Soysal, 2000: 15,16).
According to these decisions, the settlements of Mosul, Kirkuk and Aleppo, which are now problematic areas in the south, were within the borders of the Ottoman Empire. However, the decisions taken at the Lausanne Conference and the subsequent Nasturi uprising and Sheikh Said rebellion in Anatolia led to the complete withdrawal of these lands and prevented Turkey from intervening in the region (Rapor, 2014: 4; Kılıç, 2009).
The region is important in terms of social, economic and security for Turkey. Religion and ethnic structure in the social structure of the region overlap with the remaining structure in Turkey's current borders. In the yearbook dated H.1325; “It is known that the total population of the city is 57,810, with the addition of 26,510 Muslims, 432 Chaldeans and 463 Jews to 27,405 men and women and foreigners. It is stated that the city people are generally Turkish and speaking Turkish, and there is a foreign and some Arab, Kurdish and a small amount of Iranian. It is stated in the same yearbook that Turkish, Kurdish, Armenian, Chaldeans are located in the villages of Mosul (Eroğlu, Babuçoğlu, & Özdil, 2012: 46,47). The population of Iraq is 34.8 million as of 2013. Arabs consists of 75-80% of this population and Kurds consists of 15-20%. The remaining 5% part is largely consists of Turkmens. Arabs are located south of the country, while the north is the majority of Kurdish and Turkmens. (Türkiye İş Bankası, 2015: 7).
This region, which is Turkey's historical heritage, has an important place in the world energy market. The namely northern Iraqi oil fields include Mosul and the Kirkuk region. About 80% of Iraq's oil reserves are in Kirkuk and Mosul. According to 1995 Data, Iraq ranks second in the world with oil reserves of 13.4 billion tons. Of the 2.5 million barrels per day average in Iraq in 2000 and 2001, about 1 million barrels were drilled only from the Kirkuk region (İnan, 2013: 70).
Based on today's figures, there are 143 billion cubic meters of petrol reserves in Iraq. Of this reserve, 45 billion cubic meters are in Mosul and 10 billion cubic meters are in Kirkuk. The amount of natural gas estimated in Northern Iraq is 3.2 trillion cubic meters. (Milliyet Newspaper, 2016).
Established in accordance with the Turkey-Iraq Crude Oil Pipe Agreement signed in Ankara on August 22, 1973, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline provides strategic gains and advantages to both Iraq and Turkey, as well as financial gains, as a line that enables Iraqi oil to reach the Mediterranean.
The security of the oil pipeline is another consideration that is important. Apart from the existing oil pipeline, Iskenderun and Mersin ports are among the important ports for the shipment of northern Iraqi oil and gas to international markets. The arrival of oil in the Mediterranean Sea and reaching the international arena increases the importance of southern Turkey and northern Iraq and Syria. These regions are included in the Misak-ı Milli Borders and is currently the center of violence in the Middle East, chaos and turmoil.
- POST-MODERN TERRORISM
There are many definitions and approaches for terrorism. Dutch Political Scientist Alex P. Schmid has identified 140 separate definitions of terrorism. Among them, there are 22 common qualities and 20 common goals or functions. The five most cited factors include violence or the use of force, pursuing a political cause, instilling terror or fear, threats, psychological impact in society, or the widespread response expected from third parties (other than terrorists and victims) (Ergil, 1992: 140). Beyond the definition, terrorism can also vary according to the security understanding and political goals of the countries. While some countries call groups fighting against their sovereignty as terrorists, the same groups are described by other states that support them with concepts such as freedom fighters and guerrilla.
J.B.S. Hardman, who wrote the “terrorism” article of the Encyclopedia of Social Sciences, defined terrorism as “the method used by a group or party that uses violence to achieve predetermined goals”. W.T. Mallison ile S.V. Mallison defined terrorism as “the use of extreme violence and the threat of violence to achieve social and political ends”. 335, 336).
Terrorism is the most radical form of politics. It is a form of war that is done with violence, in which all methods are considered permissible and weapons are used to achieve the result. In terrorism, the parties are composed of the sovereign and those who oppose the sovereign. Terrorism is a form of struggle of the weak against the strong (Ergil, 1992: 139).
In order to achieve their goals, terrorist organizations want to create a feeling of boredom, intimidation, fear and anxiety in the public and create an atmosphere of chaos and want to ensure that the government in their target moves in the direction they want. Their main goals include seizing political power and overthrowing the current government (Ergil, 1992: 140; Gençtürk, 2012: 4)
Terrorism is not an ideology or a system of thought. It is a form of politics that includes violence and prioritizes war and conflict, which has its own methods, tactics and strategy. Terrorism is not just a form of struggle that those with a certain ideology will resort to. It can be adopted and applied by both rightist and leftist and other radical groups.
Considering that it involves violence and the way its demands are imposed on the other side, it is necessary to add state terrorism among the types of terrorism. It is the use of non-governmental political violence by the state or the illegitimate use of violence condoned by the state. State terrorism, which is seen in totalitarian regimes, aims to instill fear and oppress the entire society with the secret police forces of the state. In these regimes, even if the state has no contact with the individual for years, the fear in the environment is the result of state terrorism. In addition to totalitarian regimes, state terror is also used in some democratic states against their own citizens or for foreign policy purposes (Primoratz, 2002: 9).
In state terrorism, the authorities aim to silence and intimidate those who may harm their interests by abducting, torturing, killing, slaughtering, and inflicting all kinds of material and moral harm within or outside the borders of their own countries (Hüseyin, 1990: 46).
Another form of terrorism other than state terrorism is international terrorism. The issue that affects whether groups that use political violence are accepted as terrorist organizations in the international arena is the interests of the countries. Countries want their neighbors or rivals to be in constant internal turmoil and struggle in order to stay strong in their own geographies. In this case, groups using political violence are freedom fighters for those countries. Through these organizations, support is given to harm other countries and keep that country under control. The nature of the support may be in the form of providing money, training, weapons, explosives, hideouts, intelligence information, travel documents and logistics materials to terrorist organizations. Here, there is no government relationship between the state and terrorist organizations (Ergil, 1992: 58; Gökçe, 2016: 126, 127).
Behind international terrorism, states may have relations and interests with terrorist organizations. This interest and relationship can be seen as the state's initiative, support, tolerance and weakness. States that understand that some states will not achieve their goals with traditional warfare methods may use international terrorism as a tool. In addition, states that refrain from directly or formally engaging in terrorist activities may provide terrorist organizations with money, training, weapons, explosives, critical materials, intelligence information, hideouts, communication facilities, travel documents (passports) or other logistical support. It can be said that the states that do not intervene in any way against terrorist organizations even though they know that there are terrorist groups in their own territory but do not support them. Another relationship is that although the state does not want to turn a blind eye to international terrorists within its borders, it cannot effectively combat them due to its military or technological incompetence (Ergil, 1992: 141).
Among the methods used in international terrorism are to create chaos and turmoil in the target country by agitating the ethnic, religious and cultural differences in the target countries, to assassinate the administrators and political persons of the target country and sabotage the institutions and organizations by using the groups supported within the country. In addition, assassinating the diplomats of the target country in different countries and bombing the institutions and organizations in foreign countries are among the methods used by international terrorism.
From the Sicarii, who lived in 73-66 BC, the Assassins, founded by Hasan Sabbah; State terrorism during the Robespierre rule after the French Revolution, anarchist movements in the 19th century, and the terrorist activities between the two world wars in the 20th century and the cold war terror activities can be specified as milestones in the historical process of terrorism (Yayla, 1990: 343-350).
With the end of the cold war, economic, political and cultural globalization in the new unipolar order led by the United States of America and directed the world politics brought globalization in terrorism. While developments in technology, communication, transportation and informatics rapidly spread the phenomenon of globalization, terrorist organizations also benefited from this process and opportunities. Terrorist organizations have become almost globalized by taking advantage of the change in political thought, economic, cultural and technical opportunities provided by globalization.
The development in the world of informatics, the internet, global-scale satellites and the development of mobile communication systems not only accelerates the access to information, but also provides the opportunity to reach and communicate with people at the farthest point from any part of the world. In this way, terrorist organization members can communicate with each other more easily and without being monitored, while actions, declarations and fatwas can be broadcast live on the internet. The websites are full of online magazines, doctrines, production guides for bombs and similar tools (Kaya, 2010: 70).
Apart from being criminal organizations, terrorist organizations have progressed to become almost commercial companies and have taken place in the global economic system legally or illegally. Global terrorist organizations that do not have financial problems have also increased their opportunities to act independently, and they have started to negotiate with the states that want to use terrorism as a tool and to take place at the same table with them.
With globalization, the change in the dimensions of sovereignty debates in the political field has also increased the scope and activity of terrorism. The mitigating effect on the decision-making abilities and mechanisms of the states, and the weakening of the understanding of the nation and the state, have led to questioning of the existence of nation-states (Bauman, 2006: 11,12). The return to neo-liberal policies, the desire to limit the state, the emphasis on the necessity of protecting individual rights and freedoms by the state, led to the decline of the power of nation states and questioning their existence (Evans, 1997: 80-87; McMichael, 1996: 196-205).
In the event that global ambitions cannot be realized with interstate policies, global powers have begun to produce and follow policies aimed at dividing the nation state on cultural, ethnic and religious foundations in order to integrate nation states into the global economic and political system. These policies started the process of becoming a nation beyond being citizens of different identities within the nation-state (Billig, 2002: 151). The divisive policies on different identities have begun to threaten the survival and security of states. The nation states that emerged with the 1648 Peace of Westphalia, which contributed greatly to the development of the capitalist system, tended to produce new policies in order to maintain their survival and ensure their security.
With the attack on the World Trade Center Towers in the United States of America on September 11, 2001, a new era began in the image of terrorism. Terrorist organizations have started to take actions that will have an impact not only on a particular society but also globally, using the opportunities offered by the modern age. There has been progress from the classic wars and conflicts faced by regular armies to low-intensity conflicts in which armies are not used, states or structures they support or are members of, using sub-state groups or terrorist organizations (Özdemir, 2002:158).
Terrorism, used for political purposes, has now turned to the types of actions that promote interconnected religious ideologies and lead to mass deaths. One point that draws attention here is that while the terrorists were aiming to escape by running away in order to continue the same actions in the previous terrorist attacks, they have recently started to end their own life by means of suicide actions. Actions were directed against financial centers, transportation and energy systems, oil and media workers, apart from the political and economic authorities of the state (Rustemova, 2006: 27). The fact that the perpetrators of the September 11, 2001 attack also killed themselves in the attack enabled the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization to accept the suicide actions as a mode of action legitimized by two contradictory frameworks. Suicide attacks, legitimized within the framework of the concepts of obligation and will, are legitimized as a collective obligation of the entire Muslim Ummah against a non-Muslim enemy, a situation that must be voluntarily embraced by any person (Bozaslan, 2014: 320)
Terrorist organizations have moved beyond the conventional or guerrilla tactic of using light weapons, they have begun to use biological and chemical weapons, and there have even been attempts to acquire nuclear weapons. They started to use tanks or armored vehicles, use from land to air missiles, and became effective in conflict areas by using unmanned aerial vehicles called “drones” (BBC, 2016; Yeniçağ, 2016).
Terrorism has started to market oil and natural gas and get financial gain by seizing the oil and natural gas production and operating facilities in the areas they dominate, as in Northern Iraq and Syria. According to the report of the US-based independent Energy Research Agency IHS, ISIS controls the oil fields in Iraq and Syria with a total production capacity of 350 thousand barrels/day. Its annual revenue is $800 million (Ece Göksedef, Melis Kobal, 2014). In this way, they can continue their existence without the need for financial support of another state. Terrorist organizations, which do not have financial difficulties, meet their weapons, equipment and other needs with the money they get, and they pay their members under the name of salary (Çakır, 2016).
Post-modern terrorism has also diversified in terms of human resources. It is seen that the human resources of terrorist organizations that previously emerged as politically connected to a certain ethnic or cultural group have become globalized and people from every country take part in the organizations. Again, it is seen that the participation in the organizations goes beyond the unemployed and uneducated people, and those who are educated, have a good knowledge of technology, and have professions such as engineers, doctors, and thus they do not have any difficulty in technical matters. With the diversification of human resources, terrorist organizations have developed new organizational models, formed cells all over the world and developed tactics to activate these cells when necessary. Again, the diversification of human resources has given terrorist organizations the ability to carry out cyber-attacks against the informatics infrastructure of states or target groups. It is obvious that cyber-attacks and terrorism will be more effective on the masses than standard actions through the collapse of state institutions, defense and economic infrastructures. By using electronic tools, they can perform more effective and cheaper actions with remote control without using explosives and suicide bombers (Denning, 2003:251-255).
- THE EFFECTS OF DEVELOPMENTS ON THE SOUTH BORDER OF THE MISAK-I MILLI (NATIONAL PACT) ON TURKEY
Mosul, Kirkuk and Aleppo regions, which are located within the southern borders of Turkey according to the National Pact but are now on the borders of the Iraqi and Syrian states, have a great impact on the country’s security, international policies and economic structure of the country. All kinds of changes, formations and developments that may occur in these regions are of direct concern to Turkey.
As a result of the "Great Game" played by the imperial powers in the Middle East since the last periods of the Ottoman Empire, in the second half of the 19th century; First of all, a separation between Muslim identities was created with the Pan-Arabism movement, which was created by the works of Butrus Bustani and Nassif Yaziji through literature clubs in the Levant region. After the state-based Pan-Arabism, which continued to develop with its Ba’athist and Nasserist sides, ended with the Six-Day War in 1967, it continued as Pan-Arabism dominated by new power centers based on oil (Korany, 2016: 140,141). With these policies of imperial powers, Pan-Arabism has created a disintegrating effect rather than a unifying effect, and multiple states created with inauthentic borders have emerged in the Arab geography.
Ethnic, sectarian and cultural differences within these artificial borders were primarily preserved and suppressed as a tool for the imperial states to maintain their dominance in the region in the future, and self-help governments were brought to administration. In the process, these differences were used according to the different logbook of Pan-Arabism and today's regional chaos and turmoil environment was created. The enmity of Arabs, Kurds, Turkmens, Assyrians and Armenians living within the borders of Iraq, directing the predominantly Muslim population towards the Sunni-Shiite sectarian divide, the invasion of Iraq, the apparent aim of which was to bring democracy and destroy chemical weapons, and the human rights violations in this geography, caused a reaction on the people of the region against the imperial states. However, this reaction did not have the desired and expected effect, and led to the so-called re-conquest of Muslim lands in their own geography under the name of “Jihad” by these powers, which were also dominated by imperial and global powers, and the massacre of those who did not belong to their own beliefs or sects.
Movements that aim to overthrow the power that comes from the Baathist tradition, and the spread of the Pan-Arabism from below, which is called the Arab Spring, to Syria, which is another border neighbor of Turkey and which is the pioneer of the Pan-Arabism movement together with Egypt created an authority gap in the north of the country in question, in the south of Turkey, and witnessed the struggle for dominance in the region by post-modern terrorist organizations controlled by global powers.
Terrorist organizations operating in the region have a direct impact on Turkey's security. Apart from the security element, it has had political, social and economic effects, and it will have effects in medium and long term. The efforts of terrorist organizations in the region to recruit personnel from Turkey, to train them, to create sleeper cells by sending them into the country and to take action when necessary are issues that will disrupt the security of the country and the peace of the society (Bengin, 2015). It is impossible for the insecure environment in the region not to spread into the country. In addition, the conflict environment in the region causes people to migrate to Turkey and to third countries through Turkey. Immigrants and countries exposed to immigration are mutually adversely affected by this human mobility. In countries that accept immigration, security problems increase as well as housing, subsistence and employment problems, and unemployment problems arise among the people of the country due to the foreigners hired as a result of the desire to employ cheap-labor workers. Within the scope of the measures taken to sustain the lives of the immigrants, the creation of container cities, the food and security of the people settled in these places, etc. put a great financial burden on Turkey. In addition, Turkey’s trade relations with these countries near the region or from the border provinces in a non-conflict environment cause disruption, decrease or even end (Al Jazeera, 2014; Milliyet, 2014).
With the resettlement of immigrants, the housing problem, the increase in housing rents and prices can cause economic and social problems. The resettlement of immigrants causes a regional change in the population. According to 2016 figures, in Kilis, which is the city with the highest number of Syrians in proportion to its population, the local population in the city was 106,293 while the Syrian population was 116,714 (T24, 2016). While the Syrians were employed as cheap-labor workers in various branches of business, those who could bring their money to Turkey started trading in various ways and started to run greengrocers, dried fruit shops, grocers, bakeries and restaurants. Although starting to trade sounds good in terms of being able to survive at first, it is seen that problems arise between them and the local people. The fact that Syrians who open businesses are exempt from tax and shopping from each other are among the most important of these problems.
In addition to all these, education of school-age children of immigrants, reintegration and integration of children and adults into society emerges as a separate problem. Schools in container cities and vocational courses in provinces and districts are opened and social activities are carried out for immigrants.
Again, to prevent Turkey, which has a more democratic, secular and stable administration process compared to other Muslim countries in the Middle East, from becoming a regional power, Turkey is wanted to be discouraged from the nation-state practice due to global policies in order to prevent its political and economic empowerment, the Kurdish problem was created by being constantly agitated until recently, including during the realization of the National Pact, the most important cultural difference of which is the Kurdish identity, and Turkey has directed all its political, economic, military and administrative attention and energy to this problem.
The economic, political and social effects of the PKK terrorist organization's sheltering in Iraq and Syria, which lack political authority, providing them with training and shelter bases, and engaging in terrorist activities within the country by passing through mountainous and difficult-to-control border lines have had many effects.
In economic terms, it is possible to interpret the cost in two different ways. The first is the direct cost, and these are the costs that the society would not have to bear if the activities of the PKK terrorist organization did not exist, including security expenditures, damage and losses to property and life, loss of production due to migration from the region, and the cost of resettlement and employment for those who migrated. The other is in indirect cost. These are the capital flight from the region and the country due to the increased risk, skilled labor migration and the benefits that the resources allocated for the fight against terrorism will provide in the absence of terrorism. Between 1984 and 2005, the direct economic cost of Turkey's fight against terrorism was 72.34 billion (TRY) - 53.95 million dollars in 2005 figures, while indirect costs were 13.03 billion (TRY) - 9.71 million dollars (Mutlu, 2008: 75). The AK Party spokesman of the period, Binali Yıldırım, stated in the issue of Sözcü newspaper dated August 20, 2011 that between 1984 and 2011 direct expenditures for the fight against terrorism were 300 billion dollars, and indirect expenditures were 700 billion dollars.
During the period from 15 August 1984, when the PKK terrorist organization started its armed actions, to 2015, 6,741 people lost their lives and 14,257 people were injured in 83,500 attacks. In the struggle of the security forces against the separatist terrorist organization, 7,230 martyrs, 1466 of whom were temporary village guards, were killed and 21,128 security guards were injured (Internethaber, 2015). The deaths that occurred caused traumas in both societies. It is a fact that these traumas cannot be erased in the memories of societies for a long time, and the past is constantly reminded and renewed with current death news. If this continuity of renewal continues, there is a possibility that polarization will increase. Experienced traumas have the quality that keeps nationalism alive, makes it possible for it to be adopted by large masses, and creates a hegemonic bloc in times of crisis (Bozaslan, 2016: 124).
The actions of the PKK terrorist organization have come to threaten the survival of the country with the social disintegration, and discussions on regional autonomy and federation have begun to be made on the political ground, and ideas for the transformation of the nation-state model have begun to emerge.
The Mosul - Kirkuk and Aleppo regions, which are within the borders of the National Pact and neighbor to the southern borders of Turkey, are the application areas for the realization of the political ambitions of the global powers and after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the World Trade Center changed and transformed in terms of target, method and content, and became the center of new terrorist organizations called post-modern terrorism.
The situation in question has created new threats to Turkey's future and survival; and has negatively affected the country politically, socially and economically. Post-modern terrorism creates an environment based on pressure, violence and fear on the people of the region and the migration of the people of the region into the country and the effort of the terrorist organization members to enter the country with this migration and the idea of spreading the actions in the country against the dangers that may come from the neighboring geography and the risk of division of the country; Turkey felt insecure and started to implement “securitization” policies. Securitization policies can be defined as the restriction of some democratic rights in the nation-state structure where ethnic and cultural minorities exist, for fear of division of state-minority relations against threats from outside the country (Kymlicka, 2016: 76). It is possible to state the measures taken to address the state of emergency practices implemented in a part of the country in the past, the demands for autonomy of the Kurdish political movement, and the threat perception of post-modern terrorism against the country’s survival as parts of securitization policies.
The erosion or even the collapse of the nation-state structure in the region will cause the multicultural and different ethnic structures of the region to be exposed to long-term violence and conflict, and it may spread to Iran and Turkey, which still maintain their nation-state structure. Turkey will turn to more securitizing policies in order to ensure its survival against this situation. Although securitizing policies aim to connect the people and provide citizen formulation, although they seem successful in the short term, they may cause disruptions in the long term. In popular sovereignty, which is formed by the combination of the dominant ethnos and the dominant demos in the nation-state formulation, its drawbacks may arise in the context of ensuring collective rights and representation of the community, and it may turn into an ethnocratic form of government. The ethnocratic form of government, on the other hand, may damage the concept of justice, which is one of the main arguments of democracy, and the fair distribution of state resources, and cause those who are culturally, ethnically or politically minority to move away from citizenship.
If the region in question is outside of Turkey’s sovereignty, what happened threatens Turkey’s security. In addition, if the region is under the sovereignty of Turkey, Turkey will become economically stronger with the income it will obtain from the underground resources of the region, and it will become an exporting country instead of being an oil and natural gas importer. An economically strong Turkey, on the other hand, will be able to produce more effective policies in the international arena beyond being a regional power.
The current permeability problem of the borders, which was envisaged and drawn by the Sykes-Picot Agreement and based on the destabilization of Turkey, will be solved. In particular, the geographical structure of the Iraq-Turkey border limits the possibility of controlling the border. A border line to which Mosul and Kirkuk will be included has a greater possibility to be controlled due to its geographical feature.
The social structure of Mosul, Kirkuk and Aleppo region and Turkey's current social structure fit together. These societies, which show different education, political approach and development under the domination of different political powers, are likely to be alienated and separated, and to think contrary to each other in their attitudes and behaviors. Even if there are ethnic, cultural and religious similarities, the education and orientation given by the official ideology has the capacity to transform these similarities into differences. In addition, the people of the region who have the same education and political approach under the rule of the same government are more likely to live together. The people of the region, which are close to each other in terms of culture and religion, but live far from each other due to political powers, have the chance to live in peace in a country like Turkey that has completed its bureaucratization and institutionalization and has a state tradition.
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